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  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 5:24 pm on November 17, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: accumulation, distribution, dumb money, insiders, manipulation, , price, smart money, unloading stock, volume   

    Trading with the Insiders 

    Distribution and Accumulation are signs of weakness and signs of strength in a stocks price. Understanding what the insiders are doing and trading in harmony with them will make you a lot of money, and also protect you from losses.


    As traders we want to buy into strength and sell into weakness, following what we call the “smart money” not the “dumb money”. Looking for this in chart patterns and monitoring the volume will tell you who is buying and or who is selling ( accumulating or distributing.) Finding quality chart patterns is essential, mostly because trading good setups in liquid stocks allows for the best risk/reward relationship on the front end.


    Volume is the essential driving force behind a stocks movement, so we need to have great pattern recognition to understand whether a stock will rise or fall in price. Ask yourself, is the volume rising? Is the stock price at the top of a run and starting to fall? This is a sign of distribution (where the smart money sells off to the dumb money.) When the stock is at the bottom, before a rise and the volume is rising, we call this accumulation (where the smart money is buying)


    One thing I have learnt as a trader is not to listen or trade on news alone. A great example of this was just last Thursday, 11th November, Jim Kramer on CNBC was sprooking investors to buy Gold as it was testing the $1,400 level. The following day there was a rise in volume.


    It was at the top of a run and starting to fall; distribution was occurring “smart money” selling to the “dumb money”. These are traps that the professionals use to off load stock.
    Kramer was also very well known for recommending Enron as it was collapsing (the biggest bankruptcy in the US history). Each time it fell in price, he said “Buy on Dips” it’s a bargain!


    Many fund managers here in Australia are known for it and Renee Rivkin was known for doing the same thing with HIH Insurance just before it collapsed .They were unloading their stock – it is a practice that happens over and over again.


    So be careful who you are listening to, as the saying goes “if you don’t listen to news you are uninformed, if you listen to news you are misinformed”
    Take a look at what happening in the chart below of HIH Insurance. The volume was rising while the price was falling.






    HHH








    Another one bites the dust! Babcock and Brown is another classic example of insider manipulation. Our confirmed entry signals include quality pattern recognition, rising support lines and ascending triangles. We never entered because we never got a buy signal, being saved once again by the sprookers shouting “Buy on Dips”.




    Babcock and Brown

    Babcock and Brown






    Never try and catch a falling knife!


    Successful Trading,


    Trader Lyn

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 4:58 pm on November 15, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , learning, money, portfolio, Stock Course, , , stop loss, trading coaching, trading journal, , ,   

    5 Tips for New Traders 

    So often when people hear I trade the Stock Market, they say “that’s risky”, or “that sounds very hard” and I can understand why. To an outsider the Stock Market can appear to be a big scary place, where you can lose all of your money in the blink of an eye- and, this is true if you don’t know what you are doing.

    I have been trading the markets for over 10 years now, however it has been a long journey and one which is constantly making me learn and grow each day. After leaving school in grade 9, I began work cleaning and continued this for the next 10 years. After hearing about the Stock Market through a friend, I was instantly drawn to trading.

    I immediately immersed myself in learning everything I could, studying and learning with experts and brokers. I followed their wins, their losses, examined their mistakes and their strategies. It was one of the most exciting times in my life.

    For 11 years now I have been trading the Markets.. have I lost money on trades? Yes, of course, but what most people don’t know, is that like anything in life, you must learn the rules and processes, or strategies as we say before jumping in- you can choose a strategy according to your level of risk and minimize losses by learning how to protect yourself.

    5 Tips for new traders..

    1) Get Educated.  I cringe when I hear of people who have put their money on the line without getting educated first. As they say ” pay for education or pay with pain”..and I have found this motto to be true time and time again. It is so important to learn what you are doing. You wouldn’t take a boat out into the ocean if you didn’t know how to drive it? or better yet without life jackets on board? So why risk your hard-earned money without 100% certainty in the decisions you are making. I have spend thousands of dollars, and countless hours learning from expert traders and brokers for over 10 years now, and to this day I am still constantly learning! One of the best decision I made was to travel to the US and complete a trading course. I also spent 4 weeks with an office of brokers and followed what they were doing. As there was nothing like this in Australia at the time, a few years later, with too many friends asking me to teach them how to trade, I began teaching and sharing my experience with others. Whoever you decide to learn through, I certainly recommend this is a vital part of becoming an expert trader and effective money management.

    2) Know your risk level and find your trading style . There is no point trading CFD’s if just the thought of it gives you nightmares. Each person has an independent level of risk that they feel comfortable with, and this is an important part of determining your trading personality. Find out what sort of trader you are? Do you want to day trade options? Or hold long-term leaps? What sort of time do you want to commit? Do you want to trade full time or part time?  Ensuring you diversify your portfolio accordingly is critical.

    3) Have realistic expectations When setting goals for anything, it’s important to be realistic. You want to set the bar high enough that you’re challenged to meet them, but not so high that they seem unattainable. Setting reasonable goals will keep you motivated and won’t have you feeling “behind” if you don’t meet your objective.With a portfolio of $5,000 you can’t expect to turn it into $100,000 in a year trading Stocks alone. Also, don’t be fooled into thinking that trading doesn’t take time- it does, especially in the beginning. You simply  cannot expect to spend 5 minutes a day and walk away straight off the bat. The bottom line is that it t is your money and you need to put the effort in and take responsibility.

    4) Paper Trade.. this one is probably one of the most critical steps in starting out at a trader. While you might be eager to rush in and make money, if you can’t master it on paper than why risk it?

    4) Keep a Trading Journal- Mental stops tend to get blown. Writing your trading plan motivates you to uphold your commitment. It will greatly increase your odds of reaching the goals you’ve set. Measuring your progress will keep you on your toes to alert you of possible needs to adapt your strategy. You may want to do a weekly review of your progress, with more intensive check-ups monthly and quarterly.

    5) Pay attention to your emotions. Mastering your emotions is one of the most difficult parts of trading. And most of the time you don’t even know it is affecting you. Most people say ‘Trade without emotion” or get rid of fear and greed. But in actual fact emotions are always going to be there, and you need to learn to deal with each one as it comes up. First, recognising the emotional states you are going through is important, write down what you are experiencing and why. If you find an emotional state such as excitement, or fear, is causing you to deviate from your trading plan, then you need to stop and take a breath before you jump in. For more articles on Trading Psychology go to: http://www.learntotradeshares.com/category/trading-psychology/

    It is my passion now to share my knowledge and experience with others. Through my company Stock Course I run weekly coaching webinars and market updates, so I can teach others to trade from the comfort of my own home in Sydney Australia.

    If you have a question about trading, you can email me at lyn.summers@stockcourse-team.net,  you can also get a copy of my E-Book at  http://www.stockcourse.net/welcome 

    Thanks for reading,

    Lyn Summers (More …)

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 10:40 am on October 20, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: alert, Australia market, code red, fire, ,   

    Code Red Alert 

    Resource stocks in Australia are on fire!

    Imagine understanding the fire that ignites these stocks and knowing when to buy them and when to sell them. Knowing when the Insiders are accumulating and when they are distributing. The secret in understanding this fire is price action and volume we want to trade with the insiders and buy when they buy and sell when they sell.  Because we understand this, today was another profitable trade on Greenland minerals and energy (GGG) we got  in at the bottom at .60c and out at the top at .90c thats 50% profit in a few days.

    If you would like to learn our secret please visit our events page at http://www.stockcourse.net/my-webinars

    And book for our live 6 week trading course that will deliver you the techniques and the trades.

    (More …)

     
  • Michael Brook

    Michael Brook 10:37 am on July 22, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , ,   

    Emotional Stages of a Trade 

    When we think about trader education, most people’s attention goes towards learning to use technical analysis or fundamentals, choosing sources of information and making sense of them with intent to identify potentially profitable positions. The media report changes in the markets and in some of the fundamentals that influence them.

    The trading psychology of traders rarely get a mention, yet these have an enormous impact on individual traders’ results. Emotions influence our capacities to take in information, process it and make functional decisions and the feedback for a trader is instant. We are not proposing that an alert, embodied, flow state will guarantee results by itself, but in combination with a good trading system and plan, it will contribute to effective decision making and hence, profits.

    To foster an understanding of the scale of problems many traders experience with trading emotions, we will outline below the different stages of a trade and events that can happen to induce emotional difficulty for traders.

    Stage 1 – Commencing a trade.

    When novice traders place a trade, there is often a mix of emotions. Excitement may be experienced about the potential for profit; fear about the potential for loss. Hesitation is often experienced if the trader is unsure about trading or about the position. These things can all happen at once or in sequence.

    Psychological research has identified this common thought process. Once a decision is made, whatever the subsequent result, people look for evidence that they have made the “right” decision after they have made it. Their perception of the probability of the identified outcome increases after the decision has been made.

    Once a trade is taken, novice traders often experience the decision as being the correct one.

    Stage 2 – Option 1 – The trade goes into profit

    When a trade goes in the correct direction, novice traders experience a flush of excitement and joy. They were right and they begin hallucinating what they can or will do with the money they will make from the trade. They begin hoping and wishing for it to go higher. The higher and faster it goes up the more excitement they feel.

    Stage 2 – Option 2 – The trade goes into loss

    Hopes are turned to dust as a great idea is smashed by an uncaring market. The emotions generated by this event can range from mild annoyance at the trade not going right, to fearful anxiety, to a complete inability to think.

    Stage 3 – It’s time to get out.

    At the time to get out, traders can be experiencing a mix of emotions. If the trade went well they can extremely joyful. If they got out at a massive loss, they can be filled with panic and intense regret at staying in for so long. Often traders can feel that the market is against them personally. Doubt and self-reproach are common when exiting at a large loss.

    Stage 4 – Post trade emotions.

    The post trade emotions can vary depending on the outcome of the trade. They can vary from wild exuberance and ongoing joy if exiting at a large profit, to devastation and recrimination if exiting at a large loss.

    Regret is a very common post trade trading emotion. Traders often regret getting out if the stock goes on to higher prices. Alternatively, they can regret not getting out earlier if an exit signal was presented and not taken immediately.

    The technical merits of the trade are rarely considered in the aftermath, nor how well the trade was executed. Yet these are essential considerations that support long term trading survival and success.

    You probably recognized some of these experiences from your own trading history. At times it may have seemed that you were the only one in the experience. However, everyone who has traded will have had some of these experiences.

    Key Understandings

    Since different emotions arise at different parts of a trade, it’s possible to predict the likelihood of their occurrence. The emotions that take place at different parts of a trade are occurring at that stage because, without being conscious of it, you have identified something important that is out of place. The natural response is strong sensation around the midline of the body, which may be called excitement when the anomaly is pleasing, or anxiety, regret etc when the anomaly is displeasing.

    For example, the emotion of regret for doing something that cost you money serves a purpose of letting you know not to do it again. The emotion of excitement for making a very good trade serves the purpose of rewarding you to do the behavior again.

    In Summary:

    * Trading Emotions are functional and they serve a purpose.
    * Trading Emotions have repeatable structures and patterns.
    * They are communications from your unconscious mind to protect and serve you.
    * Knowing the patterns enables you to have choice about which emotions to have at what time.

    How to use this information.

    Knowledge leads to choice and functional action. Knowing about yourself and how you respond to your environment allows you to engage the environment and respond to it as you choose, instead of repeating actions the way you were programmed from the past.

    When you appreciate that you may experience different emotions at different stages of a trade, you will be able to notice when they are beginning and not allow them to cloud your judgment.

    Noticing your emotions can also serve as a trigger to focus you back on the technical aspects of your trade.

    After you exit a trade, it can be helpful to reflect on what emotions you were experiencing while entering or exiting the trade. This can assist you in preventing loss making trades in the future.

    When you know your emotions can affect your trading, you can learn to use them deliberately, to help you become a better trader and make your trading more profitable.

    Improving your trading can be assisted greatly by understanding your own emotional patterns and learning effective ways to improve or vary your emotional responses.

    More about us

    Trading State Pty Ltd is a company committed to assisting traders to deal with the emotional aspects of trading and to improve their trading performance. We offer training courses and coaching in state management and emotional flexibility for traders.

    If you think you have had problems with the emotions of trading, you are not alone.

    Together we have over 30 years experience in assisting traders to achieve better performance in their trading and in trading ourselves.

    Whatever issue you have with your trading experience, we can assist you. For more information about us and previous articles on our blog visit our website. http://www.tradingstate.com.au

    © Trading State Pty Ltd. All rights reserved 2010

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 8:49 pm on July 20, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Understanding trading the VIX 

    Inverse S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: XXV) is the inverse VIX.
    Well, more specifically, its inverse iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX).
    If you’re interested in trading XXV this link will provide you with the prospectus.

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/312070/000119312510160327/d424b2.htm

    And here’s how they will determine the value:
    On the initial valuation date, the inverse index performance amount for each ETN will equal $0.
    On any subsequent calendar day, the inverse index performance amount for each ETN will equal the product of (a) negative one times (b) the principal amount per ETN times (c) the index performance percentage on such calendar day. ”
    Like all other contrived ETNs and ETFs, this one has a tragic flaw that makes long-term holding a disaster. In this case, it’s compounding math.
    For ease of example, let’s say VXX is $100, and XXV has just listed at $100, as well.
    On day one, VXX rallies 10% to $110. XXV will do the inverse, and drop 10% to $90.
    On day two, VXX rises another 10%, to $121. XXV drops 10%, or $9, in response, to $81.
    Now, on Day three, VXX gives back the whole $21 gain, a drop of 17.35%, back to $100. Otherwise known as unchanged over the three trading days. So XXV rallies 17.35% from $81 all the way up to … $95.05.
    Yes, that’s right, after three days VXX has made a net move of $0, yet you’re down 5% in XXV.
    Damn you compounding math!
    I used inordinately large moves just to illustrate the point, but it’s the same story any time you play with inverse and/or leveraged ETFs. They’re perfectly fine to trade, but use extreme caution holding them in a portfolio.

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 9:04 pm on May 30, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , , ,   

    An Old Webinar I Just Found 

    I was just looking through my old webinars and I found one that I did in December 2007  when I was telling my students how to get prepared as it was heading for a bear market, at the time the main stream news was saying how good things were and how bright the future looked, de ja vu it is all happening again now, the main stream press is telling us how the economy is improving and that things are looking good…
    (More …)

     
    • Raj 8:44 pm on June 13, 2010 Permalink

      Very Informative Video………..

  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 3:33 am on May 27, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , , , , ,   

    What a Night it was last Night 

    Market Down Market Up, this is the time to make money on the stockmarket…. volatility is your friend.

    We took some good profits on FXE, SPY and EEM when the market bottomed out and then some more on the SPYwhen it rolled up and down..
    (More …)

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 7:00 pm on May 18, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,   

    Trade the downside of the market with Bear Put Spread 

    Hello Fellow Traders

    A Bear put spread is a strategy that reduces your risk or exposure, reduces the debit amount spent but it also caps your profit.
    Ask yourself when you buy a put and the stock goes up and you’re in the red how do you feel?
    Do you emotionally feel upset that you got your strategy right but the timing wrong, just after you entered the trade the stock went up in price so your put came down in price.
    You hold a current loss.
    You got the trend right but the exact timing wrong it may be due to the volatility in the market as the options are wildly swinging up and down.
    Want to feel better about the current loss then this strategy may just suit you.
    Rules to a bear put spread
    !) Buy the higher strike
    You have the right but not the obligation to sell the stock at the strike price
    2) Sell the lower strike
    You are obligated if exercised to buy the stock at the strike price; they will only exercise if the stock is below $125 in September.
    With a bear put spread the market can go up and both lose money so you can feel ok about the loss on the bought one because you have the sold one to offset the current loss.
    You then have an opportunity to buy the sold one back cheaper and keep the long one owned for a reduced price.
    Let me give you a current example on FXE taken straight from my trading account so you can see how it looks as the trade plays out.
    Original purchase on September puts
    Bought 135 strike $5,50 x 10 contracts = $5,500
    Sold 125 Strike $2.00 x 10 contracts = $2,000
    Nett Debit Cost $3.50 x 10 contracts = $3500
    So the 135 put can reduce in price to $3.50 and your not losing money.

    Short the Euro

    The blue line is the bought one which is in credit.
    The red line is the sold put which is a debit as it will cost you more now to buy it back if you want to sell out of both trades.
    So exiting now means:
    Sell the 135 at $7051.86 profit
    Buy the 125 back at $3168.14 loss
    Realise a profit now of $3883.72.
    If you stay in the trade and it stays below $125 in September you make the difference between $125 and $135 = $10,000 – Nett debit cost $3500 = $6,500 Profit
    Your ideal outcome is – you want the stock put to you at the 125 strike as you can put it back at 135 profiting the difference.
    Feel free to start a discussion or questions on this so we all learn.

    Trader Lyn

     
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