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  • Simon Euers

    Simon Euers 2:10 pm on August 1, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , moving average, , ,   

    Trading isn’t easy…but it is simple! Have a kit kat. 

    Trading isn’t easy…….. But it is simple!!!

    Trading isn’t easy. You will never hear me say that it is. But it is simple, in the fact that it is just a process. In reality it’s just a set of rules that manage your behaviour.

    The problem is Traders make it complicated and that’s why it isn’t easy.

    Over the next few segments of Simon says well go through some of the things traders do that make trading difficult.

    The second section is called: Have a Kit Kat!

    One of the big examples of how traders make it difficult for themselves is that they don’t recognise when they should take a break from trading.

    Remember the old TV add – Have a break, have a Kit Kat?

    Well, there are many times when you need to take a break from trading, and knowing when, will help to consolidate your profits and enhance your mindset.

    Many traders fail to realise the whole idea of knowing when to take a break.

    I don’t care how good your trading system is or how well it has done for you in the past, the simple fact is that the market is a highly dynamic environment that is continually changing and no single trading system or strategy can possibly suit all its different personalities.

    This has been proven time and time again by the introduction of fully automated trading systems that look fantastic for a period of time (and everyone jumps into them) and then, for no apparent reason, they just implode – and lose everything.

    The simple reason is that the trading system or the strategies it used, didn’t suit the market at that particular time.

    The system simply shouldn’t have been in the market at that time, but being fully automated it just keeps going and going.

    Individual traders are just as susceptible to fall into the trap of believing they have to be in the market at all times.

    One of the main driving forces behind this destructive, obsessive behaviour is: the fear of missing out.

    The fear of missing out is so powerful that it can keep traders in the market even when they are clearly on a one way road to destruction. They fear that they will miss the chance to make it big! Or if they are in a hole, they feel they will miss the chance to get their money back.

    This fear, which is actually a type of greed by the way, keeps them trading even when all the evidence suggests they need to stop and adjust what they are doing.

    That’s why it is so important to recognise when to take a break.

    There are a number of signs you need to look for, to suggest you need to have a spell from trading.

    Remember how I’ve talked about getting good at trade recording and building a trading framework…. well here’s where it starts to help out.

    To start with, in your trading framework you should have some rules that tell you when not to be in the market.

    For instance: I won’t be in the market if the index is below my key moving averages (signalling a bearish entry) but the shorter term moving average I use is above my longer term moving average (signalling a bullish trend). These circumstances conflict the trading rules in my trading framework so I stay out of the market, until the rules I use are validated.

    I don’t trade when the market doesn’t suit me.

    Another way to signal that you shouldn’t be in the market is from your trades records themselves.

    You should have some type of rule that says something as simple as:

    If I have 3 bad trades in a row I will stop trading and revisit my whole trading game plan and work out I am doing wrong.

    Or

    If I have X amount of ‘Bad’ trades (could be 3,4,5) in a certain period of time (it could be a week, month or quarter depending on your trading frequency) then I will not trade for the next so many days or weeks or even better until I have made X amount of good paper trades and I know I am back in control.

    So, what do I mean by a bad trade?

    Well a bad trade isn’t a losing trade – if the trade has been managed correctly.

    It also doesn’t mean a trade that has abruptly blown through your stop loss due to some unforseen sudden news – a blindside.

    But it does mean trades that have not been managed and have ended up costing you more than your predetermined risk amount at the start of the trade.

    So if you have a number of bad trades according to your trading framework, you need to stop trading and regroup. You will need to go back over your trading structure or framework and find out where the problem is.

    It is important to stop.

    Trading is all about confidence. When you can trust yourself to make the right decision at the right time in any situation then your confidence sores and so does your ability to make money in the market.

    If you have a number of bad trades and just keep throwing good money after bad in the hope that somehow everything is going to magically change, you actually end up in a no win situation. Because even if you happen strike it lucky and get a big winner, you have no idea as to why or how you did it and you will just keep repeating the same gambling mentality until you have no money left at all.

    You will have absolutely no confidence in what you’re doing.

    It is important to realise too, that if your trading routine is has changed, you need to step back and not trade until you adjust to it.

    This could be due to you feeling run down or if you’re really busy outside the market with work or renovations on your house or you have some kind of personal issue in your life at the moment. All of these will just make it harder and will eventually force you to make poor decisions.

    You have to understand that the market isn’t going anywhere. It will always be there with its countless opportunities.

    You will find that once you have your trading framework and routine in place, you will actually have too many opportunities to trade and you will be looking for reasons not to trade them, rather than thinking, I’m going to miss out.

    So, take the time to get yourself and your trading together.

    That’s why Simon Says

    Trading isn’t easy….but it is simple

    Remember to have a Kit Kat.

     
  • Simon Euers

    Simon Euers 2:08 pm on August 1, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: invest, , , ,   

    Trading isn’t easy…but it is simple! Ego IS a dirty word! 

    Trading isn’t easy…….. But it is simple!!!

    Trading isn’t easy. You will never hear me say that it is. But it is simple, in the fact that it is just a process. In reality it’s just a set of rules that manage your behaviour.

    The problem is Traders make it complicated and that’s why it isn’t easy.

    Over the next few segments of Simon says well go through some of the things traders do to make trading difficult.

    The first section is called: Ego IS a dirty word!

    One of the biggest problems that traders face is the fact that all our lives, we have been conditioned to believe that to do something properly we need to be right. To succeed we need to be right.

    I mean how absurd does it sound to say that to be good at something you have to be exceptional at getting it wrong.

    Well that’s exactly what happens in trading.

    This is critical to your mind set.  To make money in the stock market you have to be exceptional when you’re getting it wrong.

    Now don’t mistake what I’m saying here.

    We still have to hone our skills so we can make better decisions and get more and more of our trades correct, but far too many people who come to the market focus on being right.

    Don’t trade to be right…Trade to make money! And a big part of making money in the market is protecting it when you are wrong.

    You see what happens is because people don’t want to admit they were wrong, they stay in their losing trades for far too long. The loss becomes too big to accept so they stay in longer and then the amount that’s actually  left in the trade becomes so small compared to the loss that it’s seems pointless do anything about it.

    Sound familiar.

    Don’t worry we have all been there!

    Another thing that Traders do is focus on their win/lose ratio- which to tell you the truth, in my opinion is immaterial. Obviously we do want to get as many winners as possible but the win loss ratio is inaccurate in measuring whether you’re a good trader or not.

    Here’s why…..

    You can have a trader who trades at an 80% winning ratio or even 90% for that matter but if they are just taking small gains every time their trades tick into profit but they hold big losers if their trades go against them (because they can’t admit they were wrong) then there is no way they will make money. They will have a great win loss ratio (because they don’t take the loss) but their bank balance is actually heading south!! Not that they want to admit that.

    Let’s say 9 out of 10 trades all went into profit and were sold as soon as they did so the return was very small, but then one of their trades went south and the trader couldn’t admit that they were wrong (or they didn’t want to ruin their perfect trading record – a big ego mistake). They didn’t cut the loss so it wipes out all of their small profits that they have taken on the other trades, plus a big chunk of their trading bank.

    All because they wanted to be right.

    They would probably still be going around telling everyone that they trade at a 90% winning ratio, because that is important to their ego. But in truth they have lost a bundle.

    One of the best examples of people going bust over wanting to be right was the dot.com boom.

    Back then we had all these companies that had absolutely no fundamentals what so ever, yet they were exploding to unbelievable prices as everyone got sucked into the massive tech bubble.

    There were heaps of experienced traders just saying that there is no way this is sustainable.

    So they were shorting the stock.

    The irony is that ultimately these guys were right, in fact eventually they were proven right as the dot com bubble burst.

    But unfortunately they weren’t around to enjoy it.

    They were blown out of the water because the stocks just kept going up and up and they were holding their short positions. They kept holding because they knew that the companies were just shells and they couldn’t accept that they were wrong on their trades.

    They were right but they lost all their capital invested and then some!!!

    So even when something looks so blatantly obvious to you and you know that your right yet the market is telling you otherwise – you have to listen to the market.

    Leave your ego behind.

    That’s why Simon Says:

    Trading isn’t easy…..but it is simple.

    Ego IS a dirty word.

     
  • Simon Euers

    Simon Euers 12:09 pm on June 27, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: trade recording, , , , trading records   

    Winning is a Habit: Record Your Trades 

    For some reason most novice traders begrudge the fact they need to keep high-quality trading records. It’s another trap created by believing that trading is easy and every time we put a trade on it’s going to gang busters or, even if this one doesn’t, the next one will for sure. I just need to watch my bank balance going up and up! That’s all I’m interested in.

    When I work with traders, I hear it all the time, why would I waste time on keeping all those records? Or, the platform I use does it for me, why would I bother to do it again?

    Another reason for this apprehension (that amateur traders have about keeping trade records) is the fact that the results of our records represent the black and white, unemotional, truth of our trading AND that can be scary.

    Well the reality is it’s probably one of the main distinctions between professional traders and amateur traders.

    You think about traders working for a firm or a fund. Their trades are completely scrutinised by their superiors. The performance of their trading is analysed based on their trading records. Their entire employment is governed by them. Do you think they would be trading diligently?

    For individual traders, trade recording is one of the most underutilised tools available to them.

    That’s right, instead of looking at trade recording as a chore; you should be looking at it as a fundamental tool you can use to improve your trading. The correct use of trade recording is the main driving force of improvement.

    For instance if you give me 20 of your recorded trades, I can tell straight away weather you will be a successful trader or not. There’s no need to keep bumbling along, wondering if you’re ever going to make it as a trader. I can tell you straight away, just by looking at your past trades. I can also tell you exactly where you’re going wrong and what you need to do to fix it.

    You know if you haven’t got 20 past trades recorded in some form, then what does that say about your trading aspirations?

    But…Hey Simon gives us break I’ve only just started trading!! I haven’t had 20 trades yet!!

    They don’t have to be live trades. Paper trades should be recorded and analysed just like live trades.

    Isn’t it a better concept to paper trade, record and analyse those trades and then modify and improve technique according to the results of the analysis?
    Most people don’t want to go through that process. They just want to jump straight in and start making money…. and lots of it.  Well the statistics tell the story; Less than 10% of the individual traders who come to the market, actually last long enough to learn to become successful traders.

    Noticed I said learn to become successful traders.

    Trading is a skill. It’s behaviour. It can be taught. Assessing and modifying your past actions refines your trading process.

    Some of the best lessons we ever learn are learned from past mistakes. The error of the past is the wisdom and success of the future.”

    Your records should be a complete log of all trades plus involve current account balances which are used for correct capital allocation.

    There are two components when you are recording your trades.

    1. When a trade is opened the position is should be recorded, as an open position. This is to remove the allocated funds from our trading bank.

    2. When the trade is closed the information is entered which closes the trade and adjusts our trading records and balances accordingly.

    This readjusts our total balance for correct allocation of funds to other trades.

    Here are some things that you may want to record, depending on what you are trading;

    Account Balance, Risk Allocation, Open date, Ticker Symbol, Type (Call, Put or stock), Strike, Expiry date, Option Price, Number of Contracts, Price stops, Profit targets, Total Trade Outlay, Close date, Number of Contracts Closed, Close Price, Amount Received, Brokerage Costs, Profit/Loss on Trade, Return on Trade, and Return on bank.

    So correct trade recording helps us allocate the right funds to each trade and then can be used as an analytic tool to identify and repair possible flaws in our trading routine.

    Make trade recording and evaluating a habit in your trading.

    Simon says Winning is a Habit.

     
  • Simon Euers

    Simon Euers 12:08 pm on June 27, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: charts, indicators, , , Trading diary   

    Winning is a Habit: Keep a Trading Diary 

    Once you have a trading framework or structure written down it allows you to focus just on your game plan. It gives you some direction on what you should be doing. In other words, if you have a framework to trade options on the US market then there is no point looking at CFD’s on the Australian market or four X trading on currencies, what you want to focus on is options on the us market.

    Now, I’m not saying there doesn’t come a time when you want to expand your trading BUT you should only be doing so once, you have your trading well under control. Too many traders swap from instrument to instrument hoping to find the special secret one that’s going to hit home runs all the time….well to be honest, it just isn’t there. It is also important to note that one is not better than the other. Remember, it doesn’t matter what you trade, it’s how you trade it!

    So you have your over all game plan written down.

    Now a good place to put it is in what I call a Trading Diary.

    A trading diary is basically a recorded journal of all the things you need to watch to trade according to your trading framework. So you have your plan, you now need to observe the market conditions to identify trading opportunities that fit your plan.

    Write these observations down in your diary.

    This should be on a daily basis and it always should be done when the market is closed.

    Doing this type of work when the market is closed allows you to limit the impact of emotions and helps in reading the current market conditions without any bias.

    What we want to do is to set ourselves up for the next trading day, with clear and precise objectives. (If xyz stock hits this price I will do this.)

    But hey Simon, what do we actually look at?

    Well, that actually depends on what market you are trading but here is an example…

    Firstly, I record what I see in my charts. I actually write down what I see in my charts.

    That’s on the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500.

    Where is each day’s closing price is in relation to yesterdays?

    Where is the close in relation to the indicators you use? I use moving averages but you may use Bollinger bands. So, you would record where the price closed in relation to the bands. Is it pushing on the top band? Has it broken through the middle band? Or, is it resting on the bottom band?

    I also record the actual relationship of the moving averages I use. That tells me what direction the current trend is in and how strong it is.

    Some other things I record are things like..

    The advancing/declining issues, the up volume and the down volume, the new 52 week highs and the new 52 week lows and the Equity only put call ratio.

    If you are day trading or short term trading, you may do the arms index or the trin.

    I also look at what’s happening with the sentiment indicators: the vix, vxn and the qqv.

    So don’t you think that once you do that, you would have a good understanding of the current market conditions? And, if you do that on a daily basis would it not make trading decisions easier?

    Once I have an understanding of the current market conditions, I can then look at the charts of the open positions I’m holding. I do the same thing in relation to the closing price of the instrument I’m trading. Where is it in relation to my indicators and more importantly where is in relation to my individual trade plan for this trade?

    I write down what action I will take if certain things happen the next trading day. For example, if it closes below my key moving average, or if it hits my profit target or trailing stop I will exit the trade.

    That’s my open positions taken care of…I know exactly what I’m doing no matter what happens the next day.

    I then go through my watch lists and write down any stocks that look like they are setting up for my entry triggers.

    I tend to keep these in three separated columns, bullish, bearish or confused.

    All that information then is ready for me when I go live into the market.

    Do you think that sort of approach takes some of the emotion out of trading?

    Keeping a training diary over a period of time helps us to see what’s happening in the market well before most of the other market participants.

    When you make this a habit it starts to give you an inside view into the market.

    It starts to develop an awareness or sixth sense of where the market is heading.

    Now let me just stop on that point for a moment….It’s very important, in fact critical that we don’t make that awareness into a preconceived notion and get locked into thinking that the market will do what we think it will. That is a trader’s biggest blunder.

    By keeping a trading diary as a habit will help us to look at the market objectively as each day we are adjusting to the actual current conditions as they happen.

    That’s why……

    Simon Says

    Winning is a Habit!

     
  • Simon Euers

    Simon Euers 12:01 pm on June 27, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: framework, fundamentals, ,   

    Winning is a Habit: Building a Trading Framework 

    This first series I have called…Winning is a Habit!!!

    What do I mean by that? What I mean is that ultimately it’s your habits that create your results.To win you need to have winning habits.

    In this series, in each blog post, I want to give you a number of different actions that that you can immediately start to incorporate into your trading.

    You can start these things straight away, even tonight or tomorrow. This post is focusing on Building a Trading Framework.

    This is like your business plan for trading. You should spend the time to write it down. When you write something a whole new commitment to the process takes place.

    So this is a written plan of all the different components that make up your own trading style.

    It needs to address three key elements:

    1.  Indentifying the trend.

    2. Choosing the right strategy.

    3. Money management rules.

    It should Answer Questions like:

    What type of stocks are you going to trade? Are you going to trade just the biggest companies on the Dow Jones or are you going to trade the guys that make up the S&P500? Or, Do you like penny stocks on the bulletin board?

    If you are trading options then what type of options strategies will you use? Will just buy and sell put and calls? Will you use spreads, covered calls or other types of combinations?

    What will help indentify stocks in an uptrend or down trend?

    What indicators are you going to use? Moving averages, Stockastics, Macd’s, Bollinger Bands, Volume, price movement?

    Will you use Fundamentals as part of your analysis or just use charts and technical analysis?

    If you do use Fundamentals, what are the key ones you look for? Is it PE ratios, earning results, current debt or market capitalisation?

    How much money will you allocate to trading?

    How much to options? How much to any one single trade?

    What are you prepared to risk on any one trade?

    When will you cut your losses?

    When will you take a profit?

    What time of the day will you watch the market? What time will you trade?

    How often will you scan for new stocks?

    You need to know the answers to these types of questions. These and more all need to be part of your trading framework.

    They are the Guiding principles that help take out some of the emotions created by traders who simply don’t have a game plan and are more related to gamblers rather than traders.

    Fear and Greed run the market. If we have a trading structure it allows us to think independently of the herd mentality of the market. That’s not saying we going to trade against the trend. We always make the trend our friend, but it is saying we can independently make our own decisions based on our own trading structure and our own framework; not on what other people are saying or doing.

    Once you have a written trading framework, you then need to focus on implementing it into your trading routine. As you go, you can fine tune it but it is important you don’t just throw it out after a short period of time, give up on it and just go and try something else.

    It takes time to build your framework into a routine that you trust, you believe in and which becomes automatic behaviour, or in other words ….. a Habit.

    Simon Says – Winning is a Habit.

     
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