Updates from August, 2011 Toggle Comment Threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

  • Trader Lyn

    Trader Lyn 9:54 am on August 8, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Is this the beginning of the next stock market crash? 

    After a week that saw $2.5 trillion wiped off global stock markets, there is pressure to reassure markets that governments have both the will and ability to reduce their huge and growing public debt loads.

    Essentially the US is broke, unable to contain the $14.3 Trillion dollar debt. Medicare and social security are bankrupt. S&P’s one-notch downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to AA-plus, is just the first of many downgrades to come.

    We have Global debt issues from Europe & the US. The last 2.5 years has only band aided the underlying problems, not solved them. All they have done is print an endless supply of money. Now they realise they just can’t keep printing money and will suffer the consequences.

    Instead of getting worried or depressed about current situations it’s time to learn how you can make money from falling assets & understand what is REALLY going on with the world economy. This is a time to be very cautious in the market, you need to be educated to understand what is happening, before you can take advantage of any of these opportunities.

    Tonight I will be holding a 1 hour market update on the US Debt Crisis,  at 8pm EST – if you would like to attend for free, go to http://www.stockcourse.net/welcome to sign up now for free.

    Successful Trading,

    Trader Lyn

     
  • Trader Lyn

    Trader Lyn 5:39 pm on August 1, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    The US Debt Ceiling is Raised But Still More Challenges Ahead.. 

    The US did not default on August 2nd,  talk about a deal being done on the eleventh hour just as we thought! Just in the nick of time a decision has been made saving them from defaulting on their debt.

    What is uncertain is whether the plan agreed by the White House goes far enough in reducing the deficit to appease credit ratings agency S&P, which has threatened to strip America of its top-notch AAA rating. If this was to happen there would be many major negative impacts.

    The slowdown in the US data this last quarter is also reason for concern, although when looking at the earnings just released, 73% were above expectations. Companies are cutting costs by cutting jobs, this is not a good thing for jobs growth,  so although companies are profiting, the unemployed are still in pain.

    Gold continues to rise higher, as currencies come under attack. More specifically, the US Dollar, (which is the world’s reserve currency) declines further.

    The most important data to watch in the next quarter is jobs recovery,  worsening figures will stop any short term rally and slower GDP growth.

    There’s a big belief in the Gold story still as global demand continues to rise.  Overall Gold is bullish against the news on whether they are printing more money and fear of the sovereign debt crisis.

    Let’s look at the debt plan.

    $2.4 Trillion must be cut in 10 years.  This will be done in two main parts.
    The first phase calls for about $900 billion in spending cuts over the next decade, and the next $1.5 trillion in savings must be found by a special Congressional Committee. Congress must act by Dec. 23, 2011, under the deal.

    Next, they have 4 months to cut $1.5 Trillion – some big decisions willneed to be made quickly! Congressional leaders will now have to work out whether they have the votes to pass the deal — which has sharp spending cuts and no new taxes — in the Senate and the House.

    In my opinion,  the market will continue to react to  political issues, however as traders we can trade those movements. It’s important to understand news which is why every Monday night I love to give you the update on my live 1 hour webinar. If you want to understand what is happening in the world, you can access my Monday webinars for free for 1 month at http://www.stockcourse.net/welcome.

    Don’t forget-  if you belong to the Thursday group join my skype group to get the daily updates and chat to me about news and trades and also chat to the  other traders!

     
  • Trader Lyn

    Trader Lyn 3:35 pm on August 1, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    Celebrating 10 Years in Business – What a ride! 

    Happy Birthday… to Stock Course! We can hardly believe this month we are celebrating our tenth birthday and going stronger than ever.

    We are so grateful to have you share the journey with us. 10 fantastic years, what a ride!

    It is time to celebrate what Stock Course stands for.

    Lately I have been reflecting on all of the people who have been a part of Stock Course over the last 10 years.

    We’ve reached tens of thousands of people through our Global Online Webinars & live events across Australia and New Zealand.

    When this business was started from a lounge room full of curious friends and neighbours wanting to learn why we were up yelling & ringing bells in the middle of the night while we were trading, I never thought I would be privileged to be part of a team helping so many people to change their financial future for themselves and their families.

    I am consistently inspired by the people who form part of our wonderful community. Watching our students grow and transform their lives has been one of my greatest reasons for doing what I do each day.

    Thank you to all of our students for being part of our community. Whether you completed our course in the early days (in a very small room at the local hall) or whether you are just beginning on your journey with us. I am very lucky to do what I love and be able to help people such as yourselves to become traders. Being a trader can be a lonely profession,  so I feel very blessed to get to support and connect with so many amazing people each and every day!

    Thank you to our trainers (past and Present) for the contribution you have made & the impact you have made on the world.

    Thank you to all of the staff and crew who have joined us along the way.  Each of you has helped us to get to where we are today. I am glad to still be in touch with many of our former staff and to be able to hear of their successes in life and trading. I am so grateful for all of  our wonderful team members, past and present.  Each of you makes an incredible contribution.

    Thank you to Tony, for having the vision & drive to start this business and allowing me the opportunity to continue serving our students.

    Thank you for all of our partners and suppliers – in particular the Success Women’s Network, Business Expos, Share Chart, Trading State & Avestra – we love getting to work with amazing companies on a daily basis!

    It has been an amazing journey – thank you to everyone who has been along for the ride, especially to all of our students, past and present for helping us to achieve this huge milestone.

    Trader Lyn

    If you have a comment or story to share, please leave a comment.

     
  • Simon Euers

    Simon Euers 2:10 pm on August 1, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , moving average, , ,   

    Trading isn’t easy…but it is simple! Have a kit kat. 

    Trading isn’t easy…….. But it is simple!!!

    Trading isn’t easy. You will never hear me say that it is. But it is simple, in the fact that it is just a process. In reality it’s just a set of rules that manage your behaviour.

    The problem is Traders make it complicated and that’s why it isn’t easy.

    Over the next few segments of Simon says well go through some of the things traders do that make trading difficult.

    The second section is called: Have a Kit Kat!

    One of the big examples of how traders make it difficult for themselves is that they don’t recognise when they should take a break from trading.

    Remember the old TV add – Have a break, have a Kit Kat?

    Well, there are many times when you need to take a break from trading, and knowing when, will help to consolidate your profits and enhance your mindset.

    Many traders fail to realise the whole idea of knowing when to take a break.

    I don’t care how good your trading system is or how well it has done for you in the past, the simple fact is that the market is a highly dynamic environment that is continually changing and no single trading system or strategy can possibly suit all its different personalities.

    This has been proven time and time again by the introduction of fully automated trading systems that look fantastic for a period of time (and everyone jumps into them) and then, for no apparent reason, they just implode – and lose everything.

    The simple reason is that the trading system or the strategies it used, didn’t suit the market at that particular time.

    The system simply shouldn’t have been in the market at that time, but being fully automated it just keeps going and going.

    Individual traders are just as susceptible to fall into the trap of believing they have to be in the market at all times.

    One of the main driving forces behind this destructive, obsessive behaviour is: the fear of missing out.

    The fear of missing out is so powerful that it can keep traders in the market even when they are clearly on a one way road to destruction. They fear that they will miss the chance to make it big! Or if they are in a hole, they feel they will miss the chance to get their money back.

    This fear, which is actually a type of greed by the way, keeps them trading even when all the evidence suggests they need to stop and adjust what they are doing.

    That’s why it is so important to recognise when to take a break.

    There are a number of signs you need to look for, to suggest you need to have a spell from trading.

    Remember how I’ve talked about getting good at trade recording and building a trading framework…. well here’s where it starts to help out.

    To start with, in your trading framework you should have some rules that tell you when not to be in the market.

    For instance: I won’t be in the market if the index is below my key moving averages (signalling a bearish entry) but the shorter term moving average I use is above my longer term moving average (signalling a bullish trend). These circumstances conflict the trading rules in my trading framework so I stay out of the market, until the rules I use are validated.

    I don’t trade when the market doesn’t suit me.

    Another way to signal that you shouldn’t be in the market is from your trades records themselves.

    You should have some type of rule that says something as simple as:

    If I have 3 bad trades in a row I will stop trading and revisit my whole trading game plan and work out I am doing wrong.

    Or

    If I have X amount of ‘Bad’ trades (could be 3,4,5) in a certain period of time (it could be a week, month or quarter depending on your trading frequency) then I will not trade for the next so many days or weeks or even better until I have made X amount of good paper trades and I know I am back in control.

    So, what do I mean by a bad trade?

    Well a bad trade isn’t a losing trade – if the trade has been managed correctly.

    It also doesn’t mean a trade that has abruptly blown through your stop loss due to some unforseen sudden news – a blindside.

    But it does mean trades that have not been managed and have ended up costing you more than your predetermined risk amount at the start of the trade.

    So if you have a number of bad trades according to your trading framework, you need to stop trading and regroup. You will need to go back over your trading structure or framework and find out where the problem is.

    It is important to stop.

    Trading is all about confidence. When you can trust yourself to make the right decision at the right time in any situation then your confidence sores and so does your ability to make money in the market.

    If you have a number of bad trades and just keep throwing good money after bad in the hope that somehow everything is going to magically change, you actually end up in a no win situation. Because even if you happen strike it lucky and get a big winner, you have no idea as to why or how you did it and you will just keep repeating the same gambling mentality until you have no money left at all.

    You will have absolutely no confidence in what you’re doing.

    It is important to realise too, that if your trading routine is has changed, you need to step back and not trade until you adjust to it.

    This could be due to you feeling run down or if you’re really busy outside the market with work or renovations on your house or you have some kind of personal issue in your life at the moment. All of these will just make it harder and will eventually force you to make poor decisions.

    You have to understand that the market isn’t going anywhere. It will always be there with its countless opportunities.

    You will find that once you have your trading framework and routine in place, you will actually have too many opportunities to trade and you will be looking for reasons not to trade them, rather than thinking, I’m going to miss out.

    So, take the time to get yourself and your trading together.

    That’s why Simon Says

    Trading isn’t easy….but it is simple

    Remember to have a Kit Kat.

     
  • Simon Euers

    Simon Euers 2:08 pm on August 1, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: invest, , , ,   

    Trading isn’t easy…but it is simple! Ego IS a dirty word! 

    Trading isn’t easy…….. But it is simple!!!

    Trading isn’t easy. You will never hear me say that it is. But it is simple, in the fact that it is just a process. In reality it’s just a set of rules that manage your behaviour.

    The problem is Traders make it complicated and that’s why it isn’t easy.

    Over the next few segments of Simon says well go through some of the things traders do to make trading difficult.

    The first section is called: Ego IS a dirty word!

    One of the biggest problems that traders face is the fact that all our lives, we have been conditioned to believe that to do something properly we need to be right. To succeed we need to be right.

    I mean how absurd does it sound to say that to be good at something you have to be exceptional at getting it wrong.

    Well that’s exactly what happens in trading.

    This is critical to your mind set.  To make money in the stock market you have to be exceptional when you’re getting it wrong.

    Now don’t mistake what I’m saying here.

    We still have to hone our skills so we can make better decisions and get more and more of our trades correct, but far too many people who come to the market focus on being right.

    Don’t trade to be right…Trade to make money! And a big part of making money in the market is protecting it when you are wrong.

    You see what happens is because people don’t want to admit they were wrong, they stay in their losing trades for far too long. The loss becomes too big to accept so they stay in longer and then the amount that’s actually  left in the trade becomes so small compared to the loss that it’s seems pointless do anything about it.

    Sound familiar.

    Don’t worry we have all been there!

    Another thing that Traders do is focus on their win/lose ratio- which to tell you the truth, in my opinion is immaterial. Obviously we do want to get as many winners as possible but the win loss ratio is inaccurate in measuring whether you’re a good trader or not.

    Here’s why…..

    You can have a trader who trades at an 80% winning ratio or even 90% for that matter but if they are just taking small gains every time their trades tick into profit but they hold big losers if their trades go against them (because they can’t admit they were wrong) then there is no way they will make money. They will have a great win loss ratio (because they don’t take the loss) but their bank balance is actually heading south!! Not that they want to admit that.

    Let’s say 9 out of 10 trades all went into profit and were sold as soon as they did so the return was very small, but then one of their trades went south and the trader couldn’t admit that they were wrong (or they didn’t want to ruin their perfect trading record – a big ego mistake). They didn’t cut the loss so it wipes out all of their small profits that they have taken on the other trades, plus a big chunk of their trading bank.

    All because they wanted to be right.

    They would probably still be going around telling everyone that they trade at a 90% winning ratio, because that is important to their ego. But in truth they have lost a bundle.

    One of the best examples of people going bust over wanting to be right was the dot.com boom.

    Back then we had all these companies that had absolutely no fundamentals what so ever, yet they were exploding to unbelievable prices as everyone got sucked into the massive tech bubble.

    There were heaps of experienced traders just saying that there is no way this is sustainable.

    So they were shorting the stock.

    The irony is that ultimately these guys were right, in fact eventually they were proven right as the dot com bubble burst.

    But unfortunately they weren’t around to enjoy it.

    They were blown out of the water because the stocks just kept going up and up and they were holding their short positions. They kept holding because they knew that the companies were just shells and they couldn’t accept that they were wrong on their trades.

    They were right but they lost all their capital invested and then some!!!

    So even when something looks so blatantly obvious to you and you know that your right yet the market is telling you otherwise – you have to listen to the market.

    Leave your ego behind.

    That’s why Simon Says:

    Trading isn’t easy…..but it is simple.

    Ego IS a dirty word.

     
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